世界银行-缅甸高技能移民：对政治和经济稳定信号的回应（英）-2024.8-24页.pdf

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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10878

High-SkilledMigrationfromMyanmar

ResponsestoSignalsofPoliticalandEconomicStabilization

YashodhanGhorpade

MuhammadSaadImtiaz

TheingieHan

SocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPractice

August2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10878

Abstract

Inrecentyears,Myanmarhaswitnessedconsiderableincome.Randomizationwithinthesurveyindicatesthat

economicandpoliticalinstability,leadingmanyyoungpoliticalstabilizationwouldpotentiallyreducehigh-skilled

people,particularlythehigher-skilled,toconsidermigrat-workers’desiretomigratebyabout15percent,especially

ingabroadforimprovedprospects.Thispaperemploysanamongmen,thoselivinginhigh-conflictareas,andpersons

innovativemethodtoquantifymigrationintentionsamongwithlowerabsoluteincomebuthigherperceivedrelative

high-skilledyouthbyanalyzingthetake-upofmigrationincome.Incontrast,prospectsofeconomicstabilization

atdifferentwagepremia.Arandomizedsurveyexperimentdonothaveasignificanteffectonmigrationintentions.In

thenevaluateshowhypotheticalpoliticalandeconomictheabsenceofpoliticalstabilityandareductioninconflict,

stabilizationscenariosimpacttheseintentions.Thefindingseconomicstabilizationisunlikelytoreducetalentoutflows

showthat35percentoftherespondentswouldbewillingamongtheyoung.

totakeasimilarjobabroadforpayequaltotheircurrent

ThispaperisaproductoftheSocialProtectionandJobsGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBan

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