世界银行-战争对乌克兰农业部门的微观影响：随着时间的推移区分地方和国家影响（英）-2024.8-43页.pdf

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rPolicyResearchWorkingPaper10869

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uMicro-LevelImpactsoftheWar

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ionUkraine’sAgricultureSector

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DistinguishingLocalandNationalEffectsoverTime

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tKlausDeininger

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eDanielAyalewAli

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sNataliiaKussul

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iGuidoLemoine

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lAndriiShelestov

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DevelopmentEconomics

DevelopmentResearchGroup

August2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10869

Abstract

Thispaperusesremotelysensedandfarm-leveldatatoassesstransportcostsreducedprofitabilitybymorethan60per-

themicro-levelimpactsofthewarinUkraine.Remotelycent,farsurpassingthelossesfromdirectcropdamagein

sensed,high-resolutiondataonareasofwar-inducedagri-conflictareas.Thelackofdiversificationintolesstransport

culturalfielddamageindifferentperiodsarecombinedwithcostsensitive,highervaluecrops—eveninareasfarfrom

cropcoverdatafora2019–23panelofabout10,000villagetheconflictzone—pointstoconstraintstoadaptationand

councils.Estimatessuggestthatthereweresignificantneg-diversification.Byincreasingtheresilienceoffarmersin

ativeeffectsoffielddamageoncroparea,withpersistent,