3_5_专题三_主旨要义（习题Word）.docx

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3_5_专题三_主旨要义（习题Word）.docx

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北京曲一线图书策划有限公司2024版《5年高考3年模拟》B版

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题型一阅读理解

专题三主旨要义

五年高考

A组新高考题组

Passage1（2023新课标Ⅰ，D）词数335

OnMarch7,1907,theEnglishstatisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathascometobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases,theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.

Thiseffectcapitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors,thoseerrorsarentalwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendtooverestimate,andsometounderestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether,theycanceleachotherout,resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors,thentheirerrorswontcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms,thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeoplesestimatesbeindependent.If,forwhateverreasons,peopleserrorsbecomecorrelatedordependent,theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.

ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion,theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.Forinstance,theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.

Inafollow-upstudywith100universitystudents,theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime,butitwasntthedominantresponse.Mostfrequently,thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedarguments