海外石油钻探项目风险预警识别模型.docx

2015年4月第34卷第2期

大庆石油地质与开发

PetroleumGeologyandOilfieldDevelopmentinDaqing

Apr.,2015Vol.34No.2

DOI:10.3969/J.ISSN.1000-3754.2015.02.022

海外石油钻探项目风险预警识别模型

张洪大帅传敏程欣郭晴

(中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院，湖北武汉430074)

摘要：准确及时地识别风险对海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理具有重要的现实意义。基于150份有效调查问卷的样本数据，采用风险管理理论与判别分析法，构建了海外石油钻探项目风险识别模型，并对大庆油田海外石油钻探项目的风险级别进行了识别和分析。研究结果显示；构建的风险评价指标体系能够反映海外石油钻探项目的风险状况；风险预警识别模型具有一定的理论创新性和实践应用价值，且判断准确率高；风险预警结果与实际相符合，大庆相关团队应重点防范和预警“中警”项目，并制定“重警”项目风险应对预案。

关键词：海外石油钻探项目；风险预警；风险识别；判别分析法

中图分类号：TE28+1文献标识码：A文章编号：1000-3754(2015)02-0111-06

RISKIDENTIFYINGMODELOFTHEOVERSEASOILEXPLORATORYDRILLINGPROJECTS

ZHANGHongda,SHUAIChuanmin,CHENGXin,GUOQing

(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,ChinaUniversityofGeosciences,Wuhan430074,China)

Abstract:Identifyingtherisksaccuratelyandtimelyisofgreatpracticalsignificancefortheriskearly-warningmanagementofoverseasoilexploratorydrillingprojects.Basedonthesampledataof150validquestionnaires,bymeansoftheriskmanagingtheoriesanddiscriminating-analyzingmethods,theriskidentifyingmodelsfortheover-seasprojectsareestablished,andmoreovertheidentificationandanalysesoftherisklevelforDaqingoverseasoilexploratorydrillingprojectsareengaged.Theresultsshowthattheestablishedriskevaluationindexsystemcanre-flecttheriskstatusoftheoverseasoildrillingprojects;theriskprecautionidentifyingmodelhasacertaintheoreti-calinnovationandpracticalapplicationvalue,andmoreovertheidentificationaccuracyisprettyhigh;theriski-dentifiedresultsareeonsistentwiththereality.Daqingrelatedmanagementteamsshouldfocusonthepreventionandearlywarningoftheprojectsatmediumrisklevel,andfurthermoreformulatetheriskresponseplanforthepro-ject