【重点研报】欧洲央行-欧元区的通货膨胀与货币政策（英）-2024.10.pptx

InflationandmonetarypolicyintheeuroareaSeminaratColumbiaUniversityPhilipR.LaneMemberoftheExecutiveBoard22October2024

?1PolicypathSources:BloombergandECBcalculations.Notes:Thecut-offdatesforthedatausedforthe€STRforwardcurvesare17December2021,16December2022,15September2023,and21October2024.Policyratepathandrisk-freecurve(percentagesperannum)EvolutionofEurosystembalancesheet(trillionEUR)4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0 RealisedDFRDec2022LatestDec2021Sep2023 202418-Oct-24Source:ECBCalculations.Notes:Purchaseprogrammesarebasedonbookvalueatamortisedcost.Thelatestobservationsisfor18October2024PP PEPP TLTROs

?2EuroareaeconomicoutlookSource:ECBstaffmacroeconomicprojections–September2024.Note:Revisionscalculatedbasedonroundedfigures.September2024staffprojections:keymacroeconomicvariablesSeptember2024(annualpercentagechange)2023 2024 202520262023vs.June2024(percentagepoints)2024ICP5.42.52.21.90.00.00.00.0HICPexcl.energyandfood4.92.92.32.00.00.10.10.0Compensationperemployee5.34.53.63.20.1-0.30.10.0Unitlabourcosts6.24.52.62.10.1-0.20.10.0RealGDP0.50.81.31.5-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Privateconsumption0.70.81.41.50.1-0.4-0.3-0.1Governmentconsumption1.01.21.11.10.20.00.00.0Totalinvestment1.2-0.51.22.1-0.1-0.6-0.30.1Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)6.56.56.56.50.00.00.00.2September2024(Q4onQ4percentagechange)23Q4 24Q4 25Q4 26Q423Q4vs.June2024(percentagepoints)24Q4 25Q426Q4HICP2.72.62.01.90.00.10.00.1HICPexcl.energyandfood3.72.92.11.90.00.3-0.1-0.1Compensationperemployee4.84.33.33.00.1-0.2-0.20.0Unitlabourcosts5.93.72.21.90.00.1-0.30.0RealGDP0.21.11.51.40.1-0.40.1-0.2Privateconsumption0.80.91.51.40.2-0.80.0-0.2Governmentconsumption1.60.41.50.90.3-0.20.3-0.2Totalinvestment1.5-0.71.32.3-0.1-0.80.20.1Unemploymentrate(%oflabourforce)6.56.56.56.40.00.00.10.1

?3Euroareashort-termoutlookSources:Eurostat,ECBcalcul