【重点研报】KROLL-2024年秋季餐饮业洞察（英）-2024.pptx

INDUSTRYINSIGHTSFALL 2024LearnmoreRestaurant

RestaurantIndustryInsightsOverviewTheU.S.restaurantindustryhasdemonstratedresiliencein2024despitemacroeconomicandgeopoliticalinstability—2024U.S.restaurantsalesareprojectedtoreacharecord$1.1trillion.Whilethetwotothreeinterestratecutsprojectedbymanyeconomistsinearly2024didnotmaterialize,consumersremainedevenmorediscerningacrossallincomelevels.Againstthebackdropofdeclininggrocerycostsandconsumersspendingmoretimeathome,muchoftherestaurantindustryexperiencedtradedown/away.Challengesforrestaurantoperatorspersist,includingrisinglaborandfoodcosts,inconsistentcustomertrafficandincreasedcompetition.FortypercentofU.S.operatorshaveinvestedintechnologytomaximizekitchenproductivityandreducelaborcosts,withnearly75%notingthattheirrestaurantsaremoreefficientandproductivepost-pandemic.TheseinvestmentsarenecessaryduetotheimpactsofnewlegislationsuchasCalifornia’sFoodAccountabilityandStandardsRecoveryAct(FASTAct),whichtookeffectonApril1,2024,mandatinga$20perhourminimumwageforfast-foodworkers,amongotherprovisions.Lessthanamonthafterthelegislationtookeffect,largerbrandssuchasWendy’s,ChipotleandStarbucksraisedtheirmenupricesby8.0%,7.5%,and7.0%,respectively,tocombatincreasedlaborcosts.Ontopofthis,eliminationofthetipcreditinstateslikeMinnesotaandIllinoishasimpactedfull-serviceoperatorsastippedemployeesmustreceivethestateminimumwage,furtherincreasingthecostoflabor.AfteradearthofMAactivityin2H2022andmostof2023,dealvolumebegantoincreasetowardtheendof2023andintothefirsthalfof2024;however,themarketremainshighlybifurcated.Therearemanywell-performing,excitingbrandsthatcommandpremiumvaluationswhileothershavesimplylanguishedorsuccumbedtounsustainablecapitalstructures