非常规油气藏勘探开发技术国际培训班培训资料（英文）9_非常规产量预测的概念（Concepts of unconventional production forecasting）.pdfVIP

ProductionEvaluationand

Forecasting

Introduction

•Thischapterfocusesonproductionevaluationandforecastingwell

performanceinunconventionalreservoirs.

•Evaluatingwellperformanceinunconventionalreservoirsprovideskeydata

tooptimizethenumberoffracturetreatmentstages,fracturetreatment

design,andwellspacing.

•Inmostcases,earlytimeproductionbehavior(e.g.,6-to12-months)is

analyzedtoestimatehydraulicfracturelength,fractureconductivity,and

reservoirpermeability.

•Incontrasttoreservesaccounting,productionforecastingfocuseson

improvingcompletionsandwellspacing.

•Thus,itisnecessarytomodelhowchangesincompletionstrategy,well

spacing,andplacementaffectreservoirperformance.

•Inthissectionwemakeuseofbothanalyticalandnumericalmodelsto

facilitatethediscussionandexplanations.

UnconventionalReservoir:Complexhydraulicfracture?

75acresandconnectsmillionsofsquarefeet

ofreservoirsurfaceareatothewellbore

•Economicviabilityofunconventionalresourceshingeson

effectivestimulationofextremelylowpermeabilityrock,

typicallyinthe10-to1000-nanodarcyrange.

•Manyconventionalhydraulicfracturetreatmentsusehigh

viscosityfluidsandrelativelyhighproppantconcentrations

tomaximizeproppedfracturewidthandpermeability.

•Theuseoflowviscosityfluids(slickwater)andrelatively

lowsandconcentrationsforlowpermeabilityreservoirs

waspopularizedafterworkbyUnionPacificResourcesin

the1990s

•Thisgroundbreakingworkleadtothewidespreaduseof

suchslickwaterfracturesandthecommercializationof

unconventionalreservoirsintheBarnett.

•Followingobservationsofmicro