相对估价的基本原理.ppt

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2025-03-16 发布于北京
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相对估价的基本原理.ppt

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Fourthingstonote…NoticethenumberoffirmsthatwehavelostinthesampleaswecomputePEratios.YouloseevenmorefirmsasyougotoforwardPE,becauseyouneedanalystestimatesofexpectedearningspersharetocomputethis.AnyfirmsnotfollowedbyanalystswillnothaveaforwardPE…ThemeanswerecomputedwithoutcappingthePEratios…theoutliers(noticethemaximumvaluesfortheratios)pushtheaveragetoalmosttwicethemedian.ThemedianforwardPEishigherthanthetrailingPEwhichishigherthanthecurrentPE…Togettotheheartofequitymultiples,westartwithanequityDCFmodel.Inthiscase,weconsiderthesimplestequityvaluationmodel-astablegrowthdividenddiscountmodel.RestatedintermsofthePEratio,wefindthatthePEratiofoastablegrowthfirmcanbewrittenintermsofthreevariables:TheexpectedgrowthrateinearningspershareTheriskinessoftheequity,whichdeterminesthecostofequityTheefficiencywithwhichthefirmgeneratesgrowth,whichismeasuredbyhowmuchthefirmcanpayoutoraffordtopayoutafterreinvestedtocreatethegrowth.Thevalueofastockinatwo-stagedividenddiscountmodelisthesumoftwopresentvalues:Thepresentvalueofdividendsduringthehighgrowthphase-thisisthefirsttermintheequationabove.Itisthepresentvalueofagrowingannuity.(Thereisnoconstraintonthegrowthrate.Infact,thisequationwillyieldthepresentvalueofagrowingannuityevenifgr…thedenominatorwillbecomenegativebutsowillthenumerator)Thepresentvalueoftheterminalprice…thisisthesecondtermintheequation…ThePEratioforahighgrowthfirmisafunctionofthesamethreevariablesthatdeterminethePEratioforastablegrowthfirm,thoughyouhavetoestimatetheparameterstwice,onceforthehighgrowthphaseandonceforthestablegrowthphase.Forafirmwiththesecharacteristics,28.75timesearningsisafairpricetopay.Infact,i