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作业10科学研究与发现类说明文
说明文阅读解题技法
A
(2023·新课标Ⅰ)
OnMarch7,1907，theEnglish①statisticianFrancisGaltonpublishedapaperwhichillustratedwhathascometobeknownasthe“wisdomofcrowds”effect.Theexperimentofestimationheconductedshowedthatinsomecases，theaverageofalargenumberofindependentestimatescouldbequiteaccurate.
Thiseffect②capitalizesonthefactthatwhenpeoplemakeerrors，thoseerrorsaren’talwaysthesame.Somepeoplewilltendto③overestimate，andsometo③underestimate.Whenenoughoftheseerrorsareaveragedtogether，theycanceleachotherout，resultinginamoreaccurateestimate.Ifpeoplearesimilarandtendtomakethesameerrors，thentheirerrorswon’tcanceleachotherout.Inmoretechnicalterms，thewisdomofcrowdsrequiresthatpeople’sestimatesbeindependent.Ifforwhateverreasons，people’serrorsbecomecorrelatedordependent，theaccuracyoftheestimatewillgodown.
ButanewstudyledbyJoaquinNavajasofferedaninterestingtwist(转折)onthisclassicphenomenon.Thekeyfindingofthestudywasthatwhencrowdswerefurtherdividedintosmallergroupsthatwereallowedtohaveadiscussion，theaveragesfromthesegroupsweremoreaccuratethanthosefromanequalnumberofindependentindividuals.Forinstance，theaverageobtainedfromtheestimatesoffourdiscussiongroupsoffivewassignificantlymoreaccuratethantheaverageobtainedfrom20independentindividuals.
Ina④follow-upstudywith100universitystudents，theresearcherstriedtogetabettersenseofwhatthegroupmembersactuallydidintheirdiscussion.Didtheytendtogowiththosemostconfidentabouttheirestimates?Didtheyfollowthoseleastwillingtochangetheirminds?Thishappenedsomeofthetime，butitwasn’tthedominantresponse.Mostfrequently，thegroupsreportedthatthey“sharedargumentsandreasonedtogether.”Somehow，theseargumentsandreasoningresultedinaglobalreductioninerror.
Alth
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