【IMF-2025研报】国际货币基金组织支持的计划中的宏观金融政策和脆弱性（英）.pdfVIP

Macro-FinancialPolicies

andVulnerabilitiesinIMF-

SupportedPrograms

YazanAl-Karablieh,JoséMarzluf,HectorPerez-Saiz,Azzam

Santosa,andFabiánValencia

WP/25/97

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2025

MAY

©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/97

IMFWorkingPaper

Strategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment

Macro-FinancialPoliciesandVulnerabilitiesinIMF-SupportedPrograms

PreparedbyYazanAl-Karablieh,JoséMarzluf,HectorPerez-Saiz,AzzamSantosa,andFabiánValencia*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyMartinČihák

May2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Weconstructauniquedatasetbycollectingmacro-financialcommitmentsdatausingtextual

analysisoftheMemorandumofEconomicandFinancialPolicies(MEFPs),adocumentoutlining,inter-alia,

policycommitmentsbymembercountries,inthecontextofanIMF-supportedprogram.Wecombinethisdata

withinformationonstructuralconditionality.Usingastaggereddifference-in-differencesmethodology,weshow

thatIMF-supportedprogramswithmacro-financialpolicycommitmentsarefollowedbyperiodsoflowernon-

performingloansandinsomecaseslowercredit-to-GD