英文【Bernstein】中国互联网外卖大战？表面是，实则不然.docx

6May2025

ChinaInternet

ChinaInternet:Fooddeliverywars?Wellyes,butactuallyno

RobinZhu

+85221232659

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CharlesGou

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charles.gou@

Min-JooKang

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CharliePeng

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OneNightinBeijing.YourstrulyspentmuchofAprilontheroad,meetingcompaniesand

investors,includingmakingastopinBeijingwherewemetwithindustrycontactsclose

toMeituanandJD.JD’sattempttobreakintofooddeliveryhasdrivenmassiveinvestor

debate,andbigdropsinbothstocks.Inthisnote,we’veoutlinedsomeobservationsonthe

developmentstodate,thoughtsonwhathappensnext,andinvestorviewswe’veheard.

Whilethesell-offisunsurprising,protractedconflictrequirescombatantsofcomparable

strength—forwhomtherewardoutweighthecosts.Wethinktheoddsofthisarefalling…

andthinkrisk-rewardnowskewspositivelyforbothstocks.

Thisisultimatelyaboute-commerceshare.WethinkJD’sdecisiontoenterfooddelivery

wasdrivenby(1)adefenseofGeneralMerchandisesharefromMeituanInstashopping

growth;and(2)adesiretorecyclerecentgainsfromgovernmentapplianceincentivesinto

moredurableuserengagementgrowth.Wemodelc.RMB330bnofMeituanInstashopping

GTVin2025,andexpectgrowthtoremainstronginfutureyears.JD’sGeneralMerchandise

GMVislikelytoexceedRMB2tnthisyear,thoughtransactedGMVnetofreturnsisprobably

closertoRMB1.5tn.Similarly,Alibaba’scompetitiveresponsealsochieflyfocusedonon-

demande-commerce.

Restaurantdemandislongtailinnature—thisisimportant.JDrecentlyannouncedit’d

reached10mndailyfooddeliveryorders,thoughit’sworthkeepinginmindthatthiscame

onthebackofheavyusersubsidies,andalmostzeromerchantmonetisation.JDappears

focusedontheshorter-tailofdiningdemand,incontrastwithMeituanwhosedominance

inthelongerendofthetailissupportedbyamassivenetworkofgroundopss