世界银行-主权风险下的扩张性财政整合（英）-2025.6.pdfVIP

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DevelopmentEconomics

DevelopmentResearchGroup

June2025

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11156

Abstract

ThispaperdevelopsasovereigndefaultmodelwithcapitalAdebtlimitof44percentofgrossdomesticproductattains

accumulation,long-termdebt,andfiscalruleswithtwodis-themaximalwelfaregainof0.5percent.Implementation

tortions:debtdilutionandprivateunderinvestment.Fiscalofthedebtlimitgeneratesshort-liveddropsinconsump-

rulesgeneratealong-runeconomicexpansionbecausetheytionandinvestmentof5and7percent,respectively,anda

mitigatedefaultriskcausedbydilution,whichincreaseslong-rungrossdomesticproductexpansionof1.4percent.

capitalaccumulation.Intheshortrun,however,theecon-Thepaperrelaxestheassumptionofcommitmenttothe

omygoesthroughacostlytransitionwhereconsumptionruleanddiscusseshowthethreatofexclusionfromimple-

andinvestmentdroptofinancedebtreduction.Thesementingfuturerulesprovidesenoughincentivestoavoid

dynamictrade-offsarequantified,andthewelfaregainsof