福建省居民消费与储蓄行为关系实证检验及政策建议数学.pdfVIP

福建省居民消费与储蓄行为关系实证检验及政策建议

摘要

本文拟以预防性消费与储蓄理论为研究框架,运用1996-2005年时间序列数

据,采用回归模型对我省居民消费与储蓄行为进行实证检验.进而探讨消费与储蓄

的关系.并给出刺激居民消费的相关政策性建议.

关键词预防性消费理论;回归模型;实证检验

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Abstract

Thispaperaimstodiscusstherelationshipbetweenconsumptionandsavingand

comeupwithsomerelevantpolicysuggestionstostimulateresidents’consumption.

It’sonthebasisofpreventiveconsumptionandsavingtheoryanduseregressionmo

-deltotesttheconsumptionandsavingbehaviorofresidentsinourprovince1996—

2005date.

Keywordspreventiveconsumptiontheory,regressionmodel,test

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目录

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一、引言···········································································(01)

二、影响城镇居民消费与储蓄的主要因素分析··················(01)

（一）模型建立与分析及假设说明········································(01)

（二）居民储蓄增长和消费模型的建立··································(02)

1、消费模型····································································(02)

2、消费模型实证检验·······················································(04)

3、储蓄模型的建立··························································(05)

4、储蓄模型实证检验·······················································(07)

三、消费支出与储蓄的关系··············································(09)

四、模型结论及政策建议··················································(10)

参考文献·······························································(11)

致谢·····································································(12)

一、引言

自中国政府于1978年实施改革开放政策以来,我省经济取得了快速的发展,

我省城镇居民的收入水平和消费水平也保持持续增长,但居民消费增长却远低于

居民收入的增长,表现为居民金融资产持续大幅增长而居民消费倾向却持续不断

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