法国预测与国际信息中心-按生产阶段划分的国际贸易：什么是真实的？（英）-2025.10.pdfVIP

No2025-14–October2025WorkingPaper

InternationalTradebyProductionStage:

What’sReal?

PierreCotterlaz,GuillaumeGaulier,AudeSztulmanDenizÜnal

Highlights

Theintensityofglobalvaluechainscanbeproxiedbytheshareofintermediategoodsinworldtrade.

Thisindicatorishoweveraffectedbypriceeffects,whichwereparticularlystrongduringtherecentinflation

episodeoftheearly2020s.

Toneutralizethesepriceeffects,wecomputepricedeflatorsbyproductionstages,obtainingseriesoftrade

involume.

Thedeflatedseriesrevealthattheshareofintermediategoodsinworldtradeisrelativelystablesincethe

early2000s.

CEPIIWorkingPaperInternationalTradebyProductionStage:What’sReal?

Abstract

Theintensityofglobalvaluechainscanbeproxiedbytheshareofintermediategoodsinworldtrade.Thisindicator

ishoweveraffectedbypriceeffects,whichwereparticularlystrongduringtherecentinflationepisodeoftheearly

2020s.Toneutralizethesepriceeffects,wecomputepricedeflatorsbyproductionstage,obtainingseriesoftradein

volume.Thedeflatedseriesrevealthattheshareofintermediategoodsinworldtradeisrelativelystablesincethe

early2000s.Ifanything,tradeinpartsandcomponents,akeyfeatureofglobalvaluechains,seemsslightlymore

dynamicthanotherproductionstages.Ourresultsfurthershowthatpartsandcomponents,aswellascapitalgoods,

experiencedthefastesttrendgrowthbetween2000and2023,whileprimarygoodslaggedbehind.Finally,trade

volumesappearstronglyprocyclicaloverall,exceptforprimarygoods,whichdisplaynosignificantcorrelationwith

theglobaloutputgap.

Keywords

Gl