IMF-后布雷顿森林时代的货币危机：一个新的大幅贬值数据集（英）-2025.pdfVIP

CurrencyCrisesinthe

Post-BrettonWoodsEra

ANewDatasetofLargeDepreciations

AlexanderCuliucandHyunminPark

WP/25/221

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2025

OCT

©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/221

IMFWorkingPaper

Strategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment

CurrencyCrisesinthePost-BrettonWoodsEra:ANewDatasetofLargeDepreciations

PreparedbyAlexanderCuliucandHyunminPark*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyMartinČihák

October2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Weintroduceanoveldatasetoflargedepreciationsworldwidesince1971.First,weuseamulti-

stepapproachtoaccuratelypinpointlargedepreciationeventsonmonthlydata.Wethenconstructlarge

depreciationepisodesthatcover24monthsaftertheinitialdepreciationevent.Themonthlydataallowsfora

granularcharacterizationofthedynamicsoflargedepreciationsacrossmultiplemetrics,includingmaximum

andequilibriumdepreciations,overshooting,andnumberofdepreciationeventswithinasingleepisode.We

thenpresentstylizedfactsonepisodesacrossvariouscharacteristics(income,REERtrajectory,num