IMF-老龄化和人工智能对日本劳动力市场的影响：挑战与机遇（英）-2025.9-20页.pdfVIP

TheImpactofAgingand

AIonJapansLabor

Market:Challengesand

Opportunities

KoheiAsao,HarukiSeitani,AraStepanyan,andTengTengXu

WP/25/184

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2025

SEP

©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/184

IMFWorkingPaper

AsiaandPacificDepartment

TheImpactofAgingandAIonJapansLaborMarket:ChallengesandOpportunities

PreparedbyKoheiAsao,HarukiSeitani,AraStepanyan,andTengTengXu*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyNadaChoueiri

September2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Thispaperexploresthecomplexrolesofdemographicchangesandtechnologicalinnovationin

shapingJapanslabormarket.Weuseregressionanalysistoassesstheimpactofpopulationagingonlabor

productivityandshortages.Ourfindingsindicatethattheagingworkforcecontributestolaborshortagesand

potentiallyweighsonlaborproductivity.Wealsoinvestigateoccupationalleveldatatoidentifythe

complementarityandsubstitutabilityofAIinoccupationaltasksaswellasskilltransferability.Ourresearch

revealsthatJapaneseworkersfacelowerexposuretoAIcomparedto