DNV_2026_MENA_Gulf_Renewables_report 中东北非海湾新能源.pdfVIP

EnergyTransitionOutlook2026

RISEOF

RENEWABLES

INTHEGULF

REGION

Currentprojectsandaforecast

offuturedevelopment

DNVRiseofrenewablesintheGulfregion

FOREWORD

AnewageofelectricitygenerationisdawningintheMiddleEastand

NorthAfrica(MENA).Thiswillbedrivenby860GWofsolarPVinstalled

fromnowto2040andafurther2,200GWofadditionalsolarandwind

installedbetween2040and2060.

However,thisincreasedgenerationwillbematchedbyaexporternationstoacceleratetheirrenewablebuild-out.

riseinelectricitydemandsuchthatrenewableelectricityThesamecountriesarealsoheavilyinvestinginfinancing

willnotdisplacegas-firedpoweruntil2040.Alldemandupcomingrenewableexpansioninneighbouring

sectorswillgrowfollowingincreasingGDPpercapita,butcountriesandthewiderMiddleEast.

coolingalonewillcontribute30%ofelectricitydemand

growthto2035astemperaturesriseandgrowingGDP

broadensaccessto,anddemandfor,cooling.

Theregion’shistoricalcontributiontotheglobalenergy

systemhasbeendrivenbyoilandgasexports,which

havealsoformedthebackboneofdomesticconsumption.Inthisreportweforecastfuturedevelopments

Before2020,itwasimportercountriesthatwere

responsibleformostnewsolarandwindinstallationsasinMENA’senergytransitionandcomplement

theysoughttoreducetheirfossildependence.Moreourfindingswithreal-worldcasesdrawnfrom

recently,thesteepdeclineincostsofsolar,windand

batterytechnologiescoupledwithabundantresourcesanarrowerGulf-region.

andambitiousclimatetargetshavedrivenwealthyfossil

BriceLeGallo

VicePresidentRegionalDirector