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- 2026-01-26 发布于广东
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UnlockingMENAandCCA
TradeinaFragmented
World
ApostolosApostolou,FilippoGori,ThomasKroen,SalemNechi,
SubiSuvethaVelkumar
WP/25/267
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin
progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto
elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.
TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare
thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily
representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,
orIMFmanagement.
2025
DEC
©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/267
IMFWorkingPaper
MiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartment
UnlockingMENAandCCATradeinaFragmentedWorld
PreparedbyApostolosApostolou,FillipoGori,ThomasKroen,SalemNechiandSubiVelkumar*
AuthorizedfordistributionbyRobertoCardarelli
December2025
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit
commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe
author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.
ABSTRACT:ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofgeoeconomicfragmentationontradeflowsintheCaucasus
andCentralAsia(CCA)andMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)regions.Amidstongoingconflicts,security
threats,thespikeinglobaleconomicuncertainty,andevolvingconsumersentiments,theseregionsfaceintricate
challengesthatnecessitateagilepolicyresponses.Theanalysispresentsthreeillustrativescenarios,examining
theeffectsoftargetedtraderestrictions,tradediversion,andneutralstancesonexportsandeconomicoutput.
Thefindingsoftheseillustrativescenarioshighlightthecr
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