世界银行-脆弱性、冲突和暴力背景下的气候和社会可持续性（英）-2026.1.pdfVIP

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rPolicyResearchWorkingPaper11283

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sClimateandSocialSustainability

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cinFragility,Conflict,andViolenceContexts

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JoseAntonioCuestaLeiva

ConnorHuff

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SocialPolicyGlobalDepartmentAverifiedreproducibilitypackageforthispaperis

January2026availableat,

clickherefordirectaccess.

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11283

Abstract

Climatechangeiswidelyrecognizedasadriverofviolentclassifications,recentsocialsustainabilityframeworks,and

conflict,butitsbroadersocialeffectsremainlessunder-controlsforpopulationandgeography.Theresultsreveal

stood.Ignoringthesedimensionsrisksaviciouscyclewherestrongcorrelations—notcausation—betweenclimate

climatepoliciesmightunderminesociallyjustadaptation.eventsandcontextsof