参考学习资料 AI 制作 TSRNWPForecastJuly2022.pdfVIP

EarlyJulyForecastforNorthwest

PacificTyphoonActivityin2022

Issued:6thJuly2022

byAdamLeaandFrankRoberts

EuroTempestLtd,London,UK

TSRpredictsthatNorthwestPacifictyphoonactivityin2022willbe20-25%belowthe1991-2020

30-yearnorm.Thisforecasthasmoreconfidencethanisusualatthisrange.

Summary:TheTSR(TropicalStormRisk)earlyJulyforecastforNorthwestPacifictyphoonactivity

in2022continuestoanticipateanotherseasonwithbelow-normactivityalbeitatlevelsslightlyhigher

thanin2020and2021.TSRusesthestronglink(R2=0.82;1997-2021)betweentheannualNorthwest

PacificACEindexandAugust-September-October(ASO)ENSOcombinedwiththeincreasing

expectationthatthecurrentLaNiñastatewillpersistthroughASO2022.Althoughsomeuncertainties

remain,TSRanticipatesthereisa97%likelihoodthatNorthwestPacificACEin2022willbebelow

the1991-202030-yearnormandanticipatesthereisa82%chanceNorthwestPacificACEin2022will

beinthelowertercileofyears1991-2020.

Contents:1.TSRJuly2022NorthwestPacificseasonaltyphoonactivityforecast………………1

1.1ForecastNorthwestPacificACEindexandsystemnumbers………………..1

1.2ForecastprobabilityofexceedanceforACEindex………2

2.TSRforecastmethodology…………………….…….2

2.1Primarymodels………………….……….…..2

2.2Procedures,checksandadjustmentstofinaliseforecast……….…..…………4

3.Facto