能源系统韧性，从乌克兰学到的教训.docxVIP

EnergySystemResilience

LessonslearnedfromUkraine

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EnergySystemResilienceExecutivesummary

LessonslearnedfromUkraine

Executivesummary

Ensuringtheresilienceofenergysystems–ortheircapacitytopreparefordisruptions,withstandshockswhilemaintainingoperations,andrapidlyrestoreservice–playsakeyroleinmanagingmanyoftoday’semergingsecurityrisks,fromweatherdisruptionstogeopoliticaltensions.Energysecurityencompassesbothlong-termadequacythroughinfrastructureinvestmentanddiversesupplysources,andshort-termresilienceforeventsbeyondstandardplanningconditions.Whilecountriesfacedifferentthreats–fromextremeandsevereweathertocyberattacksandinfrastructurefailures–acommonchallengeistodesignadaptablesystemsthatcanrespondrapidly,isolateaffectedcomponents,andrestoresupplyservicesswiftlywhendisruptionsoccur.Whileresilienceinvestmentsrequireupfrontfunding,integratingresilienceattheplanningphaseprovesmorecost-effectivethanretrofittingsystemslaterorrecoveringfromfailures–anditdeliversbroadersocietalvaluebyensuringthatcriticalservicesremainfunctionalanddailylifecancontinueshoulddisruptionsoccur.

TheresiliencemeasuresdevelopedinUkrainetobolsterasystemunderextremestressofferuniversalinsightsthattranscendthespecificcontextofarmedconflict.ThescaleandsystematicnatureofRussianattacksonUkrainesenergyinfrastructure–oftencompoundedbyseverewinterconditions

–representaprofoundchallenge.Sincetheonsetofthefull-scaleinvasionin2022,RussiahasexploiteditsdetailedknowledgeofUkrainesenergysystem–inheritedfromtheSovietera–tostrategicallytargetcriticalnodessuchaselectricalsubstations.Theresultingfai