法国预测与国际信息中心-紧张局势下的贸易：来自媒体报道的双边事件的见解.pdfVIP

No2026-02–March2026WorkingPaper

TradeunderTensions:Insightsfrom

Media-ReportedBilateralevents

NathanChevalier,MatthieuCrozet,CharlotteEmlingerDanielMirza

Highlights

Weproposeanewdatasetthatcapturestheexposureofcountrypairstoalltypesofgeopoliticalfrictions,

includinglow-andmedium-importanceevents.

Ouranalysisconfirmsthatgeopoliticaltensionscreateanunfavorableclimateforinternationaltrade.

Anincreaseofonestandarddeviationinourtensionindicatorhasaneffectontradeequivalenttoatariff

rangingfrom0.06%to8.19%,dependingonthespecification.

CEPIIWorkingPaperTradeunderTensions:InsightsfromMedia-ReportedBilateralEvents

Abstract

Agrowingnumberofstudiesshowthesignificantimpactofmajorgeopoliticaleventsandalignmentsbetween

countriesoninternationaltrade.Weproposeanewdataset,basedontheGDELTdatabase,thatcapturesthe

exposureofcountrypairstoalltypesofgeopoliticalfrictions,includinglow-andmedium-importanceevents.The

statisticalindicators,whicharemonthlyandbilateral,provideinformationonthegeopoliticalclimatesurrounding

therelationsbetweeneachcountrypairovertime.Thedatabasecovers201countriesovernearly10years.Our

econometricanalysisconfirmsthatgeopoliticaltensionscreateanunfavorableclimateforinternationaltrade.We

estimatethatAnincreaseofonestandarddeviationinourtensionindicatorhasaneffectontradeequivalenttoatariff

rangingfrom0.06%to8.19%,dependingonthespecification.Wealsoobservethatthesensitivityofinternational

tradetogeopoliticaleventshasincreasedsignificantlysincetheCOVID-19crisis.

Keyw