通用人工智能预测与情景分析：领域现状、方法论缺口及战略意义（英）.docxVIP

ArtificialGeneralIntelligence

ForecastingandScenarioAnalysis

StateoftheField,MethodologicalGaps,andStrategicImplications

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Summary

Overthepastfiveyears,expertforecastsforachievingartificialgeneralintelligence(AGI)—commonlyreferredtoastimelinesinartificialintelligence(AI)discourse—haveshiftedsubstantiallyfrommid-centurytowardthenearterm.Predictionmarketsandcompute-centricmodels(whichprojectusingtrendsinpro-cessingpower,hardwareinvestment,andthecomputationalcapacityusedtotrainAIsystems)nowplacecentralestimatesinthe2030s,