2003高盛中国汽车市场分析报告.pdf

Long-term industry Global Automobiles view The Chinese Auto Industry Too many bulls in a China shop? Automakers are rushing to expand capacity, lured by bold growth projections. But we fear February 21, 2003 the market could prove volatile, pricing could fall faster than costs, Autos coverage views: and cash flows from JVs could disappoint. The high returns Europe: Attractive currently enjoyed in China, particularly by VW, seem unlikely to last. US: Cautious Japan: Attractive Chinese auto sales growing rapidly; unit profitability high China is the worldís fastest growing auto market, with car sales up 62% in 2002. The 1.2 mn units sold in í02 compare to 0.5 mn in 1996. Unusually for a developing market, profitability is high too: VW and Honda make their highest unit margins in China, but this is due to high tariffs and protected pricing. Production costs are higher than in Japan, Europe or the US. Keith Hayes 1.3 bn potential customers ñ the auto industry just canít resist the pull keith.hayes@ Facing stagnant demand in other markets, the auto industry can barely contain its excitement London: 44-20-7774-1142 about China. Car ownership levels are low, income levels appear to be rising and China Max