19-经济增长.pptVIP

增长理论 新增长理论 市场总是不完全的，人们不断追求垄断利润，刺激了技术创新，导致企业不会出现规模不经济。同时，知识的溢出或者扩散可以改进全社会的技术水平。企业也可以不断通过建立新工厂来避免报酬递减。因此，只要人们不断进行研究与开发（RD）活动，人均实际GDP就可以无限增长，增长率取决于人们创新的能力和实际利率。 注：斯坦福大学的保罗·罗默（Paul Romer）在上世纪80年代期间提出了这种理论，但这种思想要追溯到30年代到40年代期间约瑟夫·熊彼特（Joseph Schumpeter）所进行的研究工作。  增长理论 新古典增长理论解释了落后经济体的赶超；对应经济模式——传统经济发展模式 新增长理论解释了为什么富国越富，穷国越穷。对应美国上世纪90年代兴起的新经济模式。 Instructor Notes: 1) Real GDP per person has grown throughout the world economy. 2) Among the rich industrial countries, real GDP growth has been faster in Canada, the big four Western European countries (France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom), and Japan than in the United States and they are catching up. 3) The most spectacular growth was in Japan during the 1960s. 4) The income level in Canada has also become closest to the U.S. income level. Instructor Notes: 1) The clearest examples of catch-up have occurred in five economies in Asia. 2) Starting out in 1960 with incomes as little as one tenth of that in the United States, four Asian economies (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) have substantially narrowed the gap on the United States. 3) An from being a very poor developing country in 1960, China’s income now exceeds the income level that Hong Kong had in 1960. 4) China is growing at a rate that is enabling it to continue to catch up with the United States. Instructor Notes: 1) Technological advance shifts the productivity function upward. 2) Here, an advance in technology shifts the productivity function from PF0 to PF1. 3) With this technological advance, real GDP per hour of work increases from $25 to $32 when there is $60 of capital per hour of work. Copyright ? 2004 South-Western Copyright ? 2004 South-Western 19 Production and Growth Production and Growth A country’s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.即经济的增长 经济增长不仅能够带来居民财富的增进，而且还能有利于道德的提升（参见本杰明弗里德曼《经济增长的道德意义》，中国人民大学出版社，2008年） 经济增长是一个长期的变化过程。经济学把这类问题称为“长期中的实际经济变化”。 Table 1 The Variety of Growth Experiences Copyri