JPmorgan2005汽车行业分析PDF-10P.pdfVIP

Asia Pacific Equity Research 05 July 2005 China Autos Cracks start to appear in auto market • In our report dated 17 June, we cautioned that the recovery in China China’s auto market might not be sustainable. We recently Automobile Manufacture contacted a number of dealers in Beijing and Shanghai, and found Frank Li that the recovery in China’s auto market seems to be losing steam (852) 2800-8511 earlier than expected, as reflected in the following: (1) the frank.m.li@ renewed price reductions at the dealers, with the increased car Relative performance: Denway, production. For instance, Guangzhou Honda’s Fit model, which Brilliance China and Red Chips was hotly sought-after in April and May, is now being discounted 140% by Rmb 8,000, or 6.7-8%, at the dealers’ level, given rising 120% inventory at the dealers’ level; (2) adjusting for the factor of the 100% week-long holiday in May, a number of dealers reported a drop in 80% 60% car sales in June. 40% Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 • Meanwhile, we believe China’s auto sector faces downward earnings revision risks from the Chinese government’s p