1to2环境现状.pptVIP

The fat-tail of climate risk… The marginal cost of co2 abatement rises steadily – though marginal benefits are flat We can estimate a co2 price where the lines meet. A price signal - tax or safety valve - set at this point will provide sufficient investment in technology and offsets. The variance around both lines cannot be accurately reflected. The Dynamic View A hard cap on emissions will result in strategic, rather than tactical, changes in energy strategy Capital investment flows to low-carbon technology will drive innovation more rapidly than carbon models are able to predict. The variance around marginal benefits – the fat tail risk – makes incremental abatement valuable. Slow incremental change – 1 ? to 2% p.a. over 40 years in US Cap - are highly likely to succeed. Committed: USCAP Economic impact: Macro effects appear manageable IPCC: for 445 to 535 ppm, 2030: maximum global GDP reduction -3% (-0.12% GDP growth) MIT: for 167bmt (approx. 520ppm) 2030: U.S. GDP reduction -1.5% The “double dividend” of cutting taxes on labor capital, and falling oil prices, keeps MIT’s GDP reduction manageable. In 2007, the U.S. Will Have: The U.S. Policy Debate The system that best incents developing world participation should win The system that best manages initial abatement cost volatility may win % of emissions covered and point or regulation are other big issues The Safety Valve A safety valve becomes a carbon tax at the trigger price, with no emissions cap Also, co2 prices with a safety valve will trade at artificially low levels due to limited upside The Bingaman-Specter $12/mt safety valve with 5% real appreciation takes 19 years to reach $30/mt – while current ETS prices for 2008-2012 are already above $30 $30/ton 6.1 bn mt-co2* per annum:Manageable with Gradual Long-Term Caps 1.4% GDP 7.1% Government Expenditures 15.2% Adjusted Corporate Profits 19.4% Federal Government Expenditures 20.5% Fuel, Power, Transport Expense 33.3% of Fuel and Power Expen