[期货]第2组 我国燃油期货分析.pptVIP

我国燃油期货分析 一、Fundamental Analysis The generally situation of fuel oil futures prices. 2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合约报价约为每吨3723元 The fuel oil futures market will be better for long position. Why? Through the supply and demand Nowadays: the world over-supply of fuel oil. There is a surplus of 53.46 million tons of world oil supply in 2002, but in terms of regional balance, a shortage of demand for the Asia-Pacific and North America, the need for a large number of imports from other regions; the former Soviet Union, Latin America and the Middle East have a greater surplus of fuel oil. The future supply and demand of fuel oil 1.Asia-Pacific region will continue to demand the existence of a huge gap.While the former Soviet Union will decline in supply capacity, but is still outside the ability for all regions of the world largest, almost demand the Asia-Pacific region and a considerable gap. 2.Africa has about 22 million tons of fuel oil surplus 3.Asia-Pacific region over the next few years will continue to be the worlds most active oil trade, Singapore as an international oil trade and oil transit center will have a large amount of fuel oil re-exports The situation of fuel oil transaction The situation of fuel oil inventory Relevant economic index CPIPPI China’s CPI fell 1.4 percent, and PPI fell 7.2% in May U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6%. and PPI up 1.4% in May GDP The first quarter of 2009 increased 6.1 percent in China, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, it is means overall economic performance during the first quarter better than expected In U.S., the first quarter GDP rose 0.7 percent, higher overseas sales of the reasons for pushing up GDP. Economists expected a value of 0.8 percent or years. The first quarter of 02-year increase is the weakest growth since the end of the year. Economists expect the economy will rebound in the second quarter. Economic situation of China, U.S. and Europe It is easy to see that China, the United States