美国数学建模竞赛特等奖论文——2002 B O ACE is High【数学建模】.pdfVIP

ACE is High 339 ACE is High Anthony C. Pecorella Elizabeth A. Perez Crystal T. Taylor Wake Forest University WinstonFig5-Salem, NC Advisor: Edward E. Allen Introduction We design a model that allows an airline to substitute its own values for ticket prices, no-show rates and fees, compensation for bumped passengers, and capacities to determine its optimal overbooking level. Our model is based on an equation that combines the two cases involved in overbooking: The first sums all cases in which the airline doesn’t fill all seats with passengers, and the second sums all cases in which there is an over- flow of passengers due to overbooking. The model includes the possibility of upgrading passengers from coach to first-class when there is overflow in coach. Furthermore, we use a binomial distribution of the probabilities of bumping passengers, given different overbooking percentages, to supply the airlines with useful information pertaining to customer relations. We apply our model with different values of the parameters to determine optimal overbooking levels in different situations. By using our model, an individual airline can find an optimal overbooking level that maximizes its revenue. An joint optimal overbooking strategy for all airlines is to agree to allow bumped passengers to fly at a discounted fare on a different airline. Analysis of the Problem From January to September 2001, 0.187% of passengers were bumped from flights due to overbooking. This seems like an inconsequential percentage, but it actually amounts to 731,449 people. Additionally, 4.4% of those bumped, c The UMAP Journal 339–349. Copyright 2002 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial