美国数学建模竞赛特等奖论文——1999 A O Not an Armageddon【数学建模】.pdfVIP

Not an Armageddon 253 Not an Armageddon Mikhail Khlystov Ilya Shpitser Seth Sulivant University of California–Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 Advisor: Rainer K. Sachs Abstract We separate the effects of the impact into three periods. Pre-impact Loss of kinetic energy due to air resistance as the asteroid travels through the atmosphere is less than 0.15%, which is negligible. Short-term – The impact could produce at most 2,940 km of liquid water, which is not sufficient to affect sea level. – The maximum volume of ice turned to water vapor would be 383 km , insufficient to cause long-term weather changes. – We anticipate global seismic effects on the order of 4 to 6 on the Richter scale, depending on the velocity and composition of the asteroid and the distance from the South Pole. Long-term – Even in the worst case, the water vapor introduced to the atmosphere would condense and precipitate quickly, due to the low dewpoint of the polar air and the presence of iron particles to serve as condensation nuclei. We are uncertain as to the effects of iron fallout on the ecology of the Southern Hemisphere. – There would be moderate loss of life and property damage in the south- ern hemisphere. We remain uncertain as to the ecological effects of such an impact but suspect that they would be negligible. We expect that there would be no threats of coastal flooding due to asteroid impact. c The UMAP Journal 20 (3) (1999) 253–261. Copyright 1999 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted w