【基础金融英文版】FinancialPlanningandForecastingFinancialStatements.pptVIP

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【基础金融英文版】FinancialPlanningandForecastingFinancialStatements.ppt

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CHAPTER 4Financial Planning and Forecasting Financial Statements Plans: strategic, operating, and financial Pro forma financial statements Sales forecasts Percent of sales method Additional Funds Needed (AFN) formula Pro Forma Financial Statements Three important uses: Forecast the amount of external financing that will be required Evaluate the impact that changes in the operating plan have on the value of the firm Set appropriate targets for compensation plans Steps in Financial Forecasting Forecast sales Project the assets needed to support sales Project internally generated funds Project outside funds needed Decide how to raise funds See effects of plan on ratios and stock price 2001 Balance Sheet(Millions of $) 2001 Income Statement(Millions of $) Key Ratios (Continued) NWC Ind. Cond. AFN (Additional Funds Needed):Key Assumptions Operating at full capacity in 2001. Each type of asset grows proportionally with sales. Payables and accruals grow proportionally with sales. 2001 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will be maintained. Sales are expected to increase by $500 million. (%?S = 25%) Assets must increase by $250 million. What is the AFN, based on the AFN equation? Projecting Pro Forma Statements with the Percent of Sales Method Project sales based on forecasted growth rate in sales Forecast some items as a percent of the forecasted sales Costs Cash Accounts receivable Items as percent of sales (Continued...) Inventories Net fixed assets Accounts payable and accruals Choose other items Debt (which determines interest) Dividends (which determines retained earnings) Common stock Percent of Sales: Inputs COGS/Sales 60% 60% SGA/Sales 35% 35% Cash/Sales 1% 1% Acct. rec./Sales 12% 12% Inv./Sales 12% 12% Net FA/Sales 25% 25% AP accr./Sales 5% 5% Other Inputs Percent growth in sales 25% Growth factor in sales (g) 1.25 Interest rate on debt 8% Tax rate 40% Dividend payout rate 30% 2002 1st Pass Income Statement 2002 1st Pass Balance Sheet (Assets) 2002