煤层冲击倾向性的主成分-模糊综合判别研究.docVIP

  煤层冲击倾向性的主成分-模糊综合判别研 究# 蔡武1，窦林名1,2** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 中国矿业大学矿业工程学院； 2. 中国矿业大学煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室） 摘要：针对冲击倾向性指标不能综合反映实际煤层冲击倾向性的问题，基于主成分-模糊综 合评判理论，给出了一种新的煤层冲击倾向性综合判别方法：采用主成分分析中的因子负荷 量和等概率密度椭球模型分别确定各冲击倾向性指标及各试样在评判煤层冲击倾向性时的 权重，提出主成分综合新指标，并计算各指标综合值；根据模糊综合评判中的最大隶属度法， 给出各试样及整个煤层冲击倾向性的综合判别结果。以某集团四个矿区的煤层冲击倾向性试 验数据为研究对象，试验结果表明：该方法在确定各指标及各试样权重时，充分利用了客观 试验数据信息，评判结果客观可靠；主成分综合新指标与冲击能指数及弹性能指数呈正相关， 与动态破坏时间呈负相关，综合反映了煤层冲击倾向性；采用主成分-模糊综合评判及主成 分综合新指标评判该煤层冲击倾向性的结果一致，与实际情况也较吻合，同传统方法中采用 平均值评判相比更具合理性，从而为该煤层综合冲击危险性的鉴定提供了依据，为煤层冲击 倾向性的综合评判提供了一种新的手段。 关键词：煤层冲击倾向性；主成分-模糊综合评判；因子负荷量；等概率密度椭球模型；主 成分综合新指标 中图分类号：TD324.1 Primary Components Analysis and Fuzzy Comprehensive Judgment for Bursting Liability of Coal CAI Wu1, DOU Lin-ming2 (1. School of Mining Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Mine Safety,School of Mining Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China) Abstract: Aiming at the bursting liability indexes couldn’t comprehensively reflect bursting liability of coal, a new comprehensive judgment method was presented based on the theory of primary components analysis and fuzzy comprehensive judgment. The factor loading indicates and equivalent probability density ellipsoid model were adopt to determine the weight of every bursting liability index and every sample separately. A new primary components comprehensive index was proposed, and comprehensive value of every index was calculated. The comprehensive judgment results of every sample and the coal seam for bursting liability were presented according to the maximum membership degree of fuzzy comprehensive judgment. Based on the data of bursting liability test to four coal mines of a certain coal mine group, the results show that when the method is used to determine the weight of every bursting liability index and every sample, it makes full use of the objective information of test data, so that the judgment results are