基于BP神经网络的抚育油松人工林林分小气候的模型预测研究.docVIP

  基于 BP 神经网络的抚育油松人工林林分小 气候的模型预测研究# 江萍1，刘勇2** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 北京林业大学研究生院，北京 100083； 2. 北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室，北京 100083） 摘要：【目的】检测林缘、农田的小气候是否可定量预测林分小气候，从模型角度分别研究 林缘、农田与林内小气候的相互关系，为油松人工林小气候预测、林分生态效益的定量评价 及森林资源经营管理提供科学依据。【方法】利用延庆不同密度油松人工林林分、林缘及农 田的小气候监测数据，构建了林缘--林分、农田--林分立体空间的 BP 神经网络模型和多元 线性回归模型，借助回归估计标准误差对两种模型的预测精度进行了比较。【结果】对于集 合小气候环境梯度，林缘--林内的 BP模型预测精度整体高于农田--林内的 BP 模型预测精度； BP 神经网络模型对气温、相对湿度及光照强度小气候要素测精度明显高于利用多元线性回 归模型。【结论】选用 BP 神经网络构建的林缘--林分模型实用性强，模拟精度高，可达到 评价林分小气候、定量预测的目的。 关键词：森林培育；BP 人工神经网络；定量预测；立体水热空间；小气候 中图分类号：S791.254 Simulation and Forecast of Microclimate in Post-thinned Pinus tabulaeformis Plantations based on BP Neutral Network Model JIANG Ping1, LIU Yong2 (1. Graduate School of Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083; 2. Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Conservation, Ministry of Education, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083) Abstract: 【Objective】From the standpoint of model, the interrelationship of forest microclimate with forest edge microclimate and farm microclimate were studied to explore whether forest edge microclimate or farm microclimate would predict forest microclimate in order to provide scientific basis for facility meteorological service in plantations, quantitative evaluation for ecological effect and management regulation of plantations. 【Method】 Back propagation neutral network model (BP) and multiple linear regression model were employed for forest edge--forest microclimate and farm--forest microclimate prediction by using observed meteorological data for the study site in Pinus tabulaeformis plantations of Yanqing county, Beijing. Predictive accuracy was compared by Root mean squared error (RSME) between these two models. 【 Result 】 For congregate microclimate-gradient, the precision of forest edge--forest BP neural network model was higher than that of farm-- forest BP neural network model obviously based on RMSE; The Predictive accuracy of air temperature, relative humidity and light intensity via BP