太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险分区评估方法研究.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2011,31(3) ：498~503 China Environmental Science 太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险分区评估方法研究 1 1 2 2* 刘聚涛 ,杨永生 ,姜加虎 ,高俊峰 (1.江西省水利科学研究院,江西 南昌 330029 ；2. 中国科学院南京地理与 湖泊研究所,江苏 南京 210008) 摘要：通过对太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险分析,构建太湖蓝藻水华风险评估指标体系,结合风险评估概念,建立太湖蓝藻水华灾害风险评估方法. 在此基础上, 以 2008 年为基准年,结合太湖 9 个分区,评估各湖区蓝藻水华灾害危险性、易损性、脆弱性和综合风险.结果表明,综合风险最 大的区域集中在太湖的北部,尤其作为水源地的贡湖风险最大,为重度风险;竺山湖、梅梁湾和西部沿岸由于其危险性较大,而总体风险较大, 为中度风险;其他湖区风险较小,胥湖、南部沿岸和大太湖为轻度风险;太湖的东南部湖区箭湖东茭咀和东太湖由于水体富营养化程度较低, 植物覆盖率较高,蓝藻水华发生危险性较小,综合风险指数较小,为轻微风险. 关键词：蓝藻水华灾害；风险评估；太湖 中图分类号：X824 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2011)03-0498-06 1 1 Risk evaluation method of cyanobacteria bloom hazard in Taihu Lake. LIU Ju-tao , YANG Yong-sheng , JIANG 2 2* Jia-hu , GAO Jun-feng (1.Jiangxi Provincial Institute of Water Sciences, Nanchang 330029, China ；2.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China). China Environmental Science, 2011,31(3) ：498~503 Abstract ：Based on the risk analysis of cynaobacteria bloom hazard in Taihu Lake, the index system for the cynaobacteria bloom risk evaluation was constructed. Combined with the concept of risk evaluation, the risk evaluation method was established. On the basis, the hazard risk, exposure risk, vulnerability risk, and comprehensive risk of the nine lake regions in Taihu Lake were evaluated taking 2008 as the base year. The largest risk regions were in northern part of Taihu Lake, especially the Gonghu Lake was the most serious as the water source area. The risk in Zhushan Lake, Meiliang Bay and western coastal was middle for the large hazard risk. In the other regions, the risk in Xuhu Lake, southern coastal and big Taihu Lake was light risk, and there were almost