信贷调整与经济波动的时滞效应 1978~ 2009.pdfVIP

财政金融 FINANCE 信贷调整与经济波动的时滞效应： 1978～2009 * The Time Lag Effect of Credit Adjustment and Economic Fluctuation: 1978-2009 段军山 周 婕 内容提要 银行信贷存在明显的 亲经济周期 效应 考虑我国转型期的实际特征以及政府调控经济的策略和工具特 “ ” , 征 银行信贷可能是经济波动的主要影响因素之一 我国经济整体扩张期的扩张幅度比收缩期的收缩幅度大 显示 ， 。 ， 我国信贷调整的刚性 经济波动与信贷波动存在长期的 协整 关系 信贷对经济波动影响具有至少 年的时滞效 。 “ ” ， 2 应 从 年整体经济轨迹来看 信贷变动是导致经济波动的一个重要因素 但贷款波动具有一定的外生性 。 1987～2009 ， ， 。 对于 区间中 经济波动可能对贷款变动有一定的影响 1994～2009 ， 。 关键词 银行信贷 经济波动 协整检验 误差修正模型 作者单位 广东商学院金融学院 广东广州 510320 ；重庆工商大学经济贸易学院 重庆 400067 Duan Junshan Zhou Jie Abstract: There is procyclicality effect existed in the bank credit obviously. Take the actual characteristics in the transition period of China and the strategies and tools characteristics of the government to control the economy into account, the bank credit may be one of the main factors of economic fluctuation. The expansion rate of the overall expansion phase is higher than the contraction rate of the contraction phase of China ’s economy, which shows the rigidity of credit adjustment in Chi- na. There is long-term cointegration relationship between economic fluctuation and credit fluctuation and the time lag effect that credit has on economic fluctuation is 2 years at least. Viewing the track of the overall economy from 1987 to 2009, credit change is an important factor leading to the economic fluctuation, but the credit fluctuation is exogenous. The eco- nomic fluctuation may have certain impact on the credit f