四、基于面板数据的实证分析.docVIP

2004年中国经济学年会投稿论文 投稿领域：国际经济学 FDI与垂直型产业内贸易 ——基于东亚地区电子产业面板数据的实证分析 耿强 吴春燕 南京大学商学院经济学系 2004年7月 FDI与垂直型产业内贸易( ——基于东亚地区电子产业面板数据的实证分析 内容简介：本文首先回顾了相关的产业内贸易理论和已有的计量文献，并在此基础上提出假设认为垂直产业内贸易主要是由于跨国公司的跨国直接投资引起的，跨国公司的FDI对垂直产业内贸易起到了关键性作用，在两个国家的要素禀赋存在差异的情况下，如果跨越国界设立跨国公司和进出口贸易的成本低于一个关键值，则两国就会发生垂直型产业内贸易。东亚地区的区域内垂直一体化贸易的比例越来越高，尤其是在电子产业更为明显。本文基于东亚地区的电子产业在1988－2000年的面板数据，进行相关的计量检验，最后的结果支持我们的假说，证明FDI在垂直产业化分工中和垂直产业内贸易中起着关键性作用。 关键词：外国直接投资 垂直型产业内贸易 东亚电子产业 FDI and Vertical Intra-industry Trade ——Panel-data Analysis of electronic industry in East Asia Abstract:This paper reviews the theories of intra-industry trade and econometric literature at first, and then raises the following hypothesis that intra-industry trade is mainly caused by the cross-country direct investment （FDI） of multinational corporations, which makes a key effect. If the cost of establishing multinational corporations and import-export is lower than a key value, two countries will develop vertical intra-industry trade under the condition of different factor endowment level. The share of intra-region vertical integration trade in East Asia is expanding, especially in electronic industry. In this paper, the econometric test has used based on the panel data about intra-industry trade from 1988 to 2000 in East Asia, the outcome support our hypothesis, the key role of FDI in vertical intra-industry division and vertical intra-industry trade. The paper is organized as follows. Section I reviews the literature on intra-industry trade and multinational corporation theories. Section II makes statistics and analysis of development of economy and trade in East Asia region, especially in electronic industry. Section III creates an econometric model, and explains the meaning of related variables. Section IV makes econometric analysis of panel data using OLS, Random-effects and Fixed-effects models. The last section is conclusion and policy suggestion. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment（FDI） Vertical Intra