长江流域降水变化及其趋势演变.docVIP

Observed and Interpolated Precipitation Trends and Variability in the Yangtze Catchment Area( Stefan Becker1, Marco Gemmer2 Jiang Tong 3 (1:Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany;2:Centre for international Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany; 3:Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS,Nanjing 210008,P.R.,China) Abstract Precipitation trends in China with special emphasis on the Yangtze catchment area have been analysed. Significant positive and negative trends for the second half of last century have been detected for different regions on a monthly scale. The interpolation of the trends lead to characteristic spatial trend patterns in China. The analysis of long-term precipitation records in the Yangtze catchment area revealed a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time on the monthly scale and a distinct cyclicity for some stations on the annual scale. Keywords: China, Yangtze River, climate change, precipitation trend analysis The implications of precipitation variations are particularly relevant for China as to it’s regional disparities of natural resources. Climate variations can increase the frequency of droughts and floods due to the unequal availability of water. The most recent example is the higher number of floods in the Yangtze River catchment in the 1990s and the water shortage in the Yellow river catchment which, of course, have been aggravated by human activities. Therefore, the evaluation of precipitation variations are important for the assessment of climate induced risks and countermeasures. Analyses of precipitation trends in China have also been published e.g. by Chen and others[1-7]. 1 Data and methods The evaluations are based on two data sets: The first one consists of data of 160 National Meteorological Observatory stations with long-term monthly precipitation data sets which are spread widely over China. The data sets, which