人民币汇率波动对中国A股市场价格的影响.pdfVIP

论 文 摘 要 汇率是一国货币与另外一国的货币相交换的价格，它主要由外汇市场的需求来 决定。而股票价格则是国民经济发展状况的风向标，一个反应本国与其他国家之间 的经济联系，一个反应了本国自身经济的状况。在国际经济联系越来越紧密的今天， 对于开放的经济体来说，这两者之间的联系成了经济发展中很重要的一个环节，对 实现本国经济目标有很大的影响。特别是对于中国这样一个货币汇率制度改革刚起 步不久，国内金融制度改革也还不成熟的国家，研究二者之间的联系更是有重要的 意义。 随着我国改革开放的不断深入，市场经济的不断发展和金融市场的不断成熟， 人民币汇率与中国的股票市场之间的联系会越来越明显。本论文在这一现实下，先 通过相关的理论推导出两者之间的传导途径，然后对中国的数据进行实证分析，来 对二者之间的关系有一个检验，接着结合理论和实证分析，解释实证结果，在这些 研究的基础上对中国的状况提出一些合理的建议。 关键词：名义有效汇率，上证 A 指，深圳成份 A 指，一年期贷款基准利率，广义 货币供应量 I ABSTRACT Currency exchange rate is the price of exchange one countrys currency with another countrys currency, and it is determined primarily by the supplies and demands in the foreign exchange market. Stock price is the reflection of national economic development. The former is a response to economic ties between the nation and other countries, and the latter is the reaction to the national economy. Nowadays, the international economy is becoming more and more closely linked. For a open economy, the relationship of these two aspects has become a important process for achieving the national economic objectives. Especially for China, where a currency exchange rate system reform has just started shortly and the reforms of the domestic financial system are not mature, studying the links between these two aspects are more important. Along with the deepening of reform and opening up, the continuous development of market economy and financial markets, the RMB exchange rate and Chinese stock market will be linked more closely. In this paper, based on this reality, the beginning is working out a reflection pathway between the two according to the related theories, and then carrying out some empirical analysis of the data in China, then