浙江FDI产业结构效应的实证分析【毕业论文+文献综述+任务书+开题报告】.doc

( 2011届 ) 毕业论文 题 目： 浙江FDI产业结构效应的实证分析 信 明 签名日期： 年 月 日 授 权 声 明 签名日期： 年 月 日 摘 要 随着经济全球一体化的推进，外商直接投资（FDI）对开放性区域经济增长的贡献日益增大，因此一个地区利用FDI情况与其对该地区的产业结构产生的效应已日益成为各地政府关注的重要问题。本文首先介绍改革开放以来浙江省产业结构变动的概况, 浙江吸引外商直接投资的趋势，结构分析及产业分布，然后从浙江自身角度,分别用三次产业的FDI与各自的产值运用计量模型计算分析。通过单位根检验、协整分析，得出三次产业的产值与FDI稳定的均衡关系，接着运用格兰杰检验方法说明三次产业的产值与FDI是否具有显著的双向因果关系。最后，在上述研究的基础上提出进一步促进浙江利用FDI的政策建议。 关键词：FDI,产业结构,协整分析,格兰杰因果检验 ABSTRACT With the advance of economic globalization, the contribution of regional economic growth was caused by increasing FDI. So the situation of using FDI and the efficiency of the structure of industry have became an important thing for the local government. First, this article introduces the basic situation about the use of FDI, the trend of obsorbing FDI ,the analysis of the structure and the distribution of the industry in Zhejiang. Then, it uses performance index performance econometric model to calculate and analysis，with respective gross Domestic Product and its FDI from the Angle of zhejiang itself. A modern co-integration test method was used for further in-depth quantitative analysis. After unit root test, co-integration analysis, come to the flow of FDI , changes in the Gross Domestic Product of Zhejiang and no long-term stability of the equilibrium relationship，Granger test was introduced and whether has the significant two-way causal relationship between the Gross Domestic Product and FDI in Zhejiang was proved. Finally, it proposes several relevant suggestions to promote the level of using FDI in Zhejiang on the basis of all above studies. KEY WORDS: FDI，structure of industry, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality test  目 录 摘 要 I ABSTRACT II 引 言 1 一、文献回顾 1 （一）国外关于FDI产业结构效应的研究 1 （二）国内关于FDI产业结构效应的研究 2 二、FDI与浙江产业结构变动的描述性统计分析 3 （一）浙江FDI的变动 3 （二）浙江产业结构的变动 4 （三）FDI与浙江产业结构变动的关系 4 三、浙江FDI产业结构效应的计量分析 8 （一）变量的选取与数据处理 4 （二）模型的设立 8 （三）数据的平稳性检验 10 （四）协整分析 10 （五）格兰杰因果检验 10 四、结论与政策建议 14 参考文献 18 致 谢 20 附 录