宏观税负与经济增长关系的实证研究 ——以河北省为例.pdfVIP

中 文 摘 要 1 河北省宏观税负 和经济增长率保持基本一致的增长趋势，但与同处于东部沿海地区 的江苏、浙江、山东、广东等省份相比，二者却都处于较低水平。由此引人深思，河北 省的经济增长率和宏观税负之间存在何种关系？是否可以通过提高宏观税负来促进经济 增长？ 本文首先对宏观税负与经济增长影响机制的相关文献进行了梳理；然后利用数量统 计方法，对河北省的税收、宏观税负和宏观经济现状进行描述，并从税源、税负结构和 产业结构等方面分析了河北省宏观税负较低的原因。在此基础之上，本文运用计量工具， 进行了如下分析：首先通过协整检验，得出了河北省税收与经济在长期具有唯一稳定的 均衡关系；由Granger 因果检验得出，在延迟的1-4年内，经济增长是税收增长的格兰杰原 因；再次，通过建立宏观税负与经济增长率的回归方程，验证了两者具有正向相关性， 即宏观税负每提高一个百分点，经济增长率相应提高0.447个百分点。 基于上述分析，本文认为河北省实现经济持续增长，可以从提高宏观税负着手。而 提高宏观税负水平，则可以通过优化税负结构，推动产业升级、增进区域协调等措施， 使地方经济结构进一步优化来达到。 关键词：宏观税负 经济增长 税负结构 经济结构 协整检验 线性回归 Abstract Macro tax burden and economic growth rate of Hebei province are lower than that of the coastal areas such as Jiangsu Zhejiang Shandong and Guangdong province, despite of their parallel trend. What kind of relation between the two indicators exists? Could it possible to promote economic growth by upgrading macro tax burden? After overview of literature on relation between macro tax burden and economic growth, quantitative statistics is employed in this paper to describe taxation and economic performance in Hebei province. And then it traces the causes of lower macro tax burden in Hebei province in three aspects: tax resources, tax structure and industrial structure. This paper concludes that taxation and economic performance in Hebei province have an exclusive and stable equilibrium relation in the long term through co-integration test. Result of Granger causality test shows that there exists a Granger causality between economic growth and taxation growth in the later one to four years. Linear Regression function is established to verify the positive correlation between the two. In effect, one percentage point hike in macro tax burden could result in one point four two three percentage increase of ec