应用财务比率预警财务危机外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 Title: Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy Material Source: /pss/2490395 Author:James Ohlson 1 Introduction This paper presents some empirical results of a study predicting corporate failure as evidenced by the event of bankruptcy. There have been a fair number of previous studies in this field of research; the more notable published contributions are Beaver (1966; 1968a; 1968b), Altman (1968; 1973) and so on. Two unpublished papers by White and Turnbuli (1975a; 1975b) and a paper by Santomero and Vinso (1977) are of particular interest as they appear to be the first studies which logically and systematically develop probabilistic estimates of failure. The present study is similar to the latter studies, in that the methodology is one of maximum likelihood estimation of the so-called conditional logit model. The data set used in this study is from the seventies (1970-76). I know of only three corporate failure research studies which have examined data from this period. One is a limited study by Altman and McGough (1974])in which only failed firms were drawn from the period 1970-73 and only one type of classification error (misclassification of failed firms) was analyzed. Moyer (1977) considered the period 1965-75, but the sample of bankrupt firms was unusually small (twenty-seven firms). The third study, by Altman, Haldeman, and Narayanan (1977), which updates the original Altman (1968)study, basically considers data from the period 1969 to 1975. Their sample was based on fifty-three failed firms and about the same number of nonfailed firms. In contrast, my study relies on observations from 105 bankrupt firms and 2,058 nonbankrupt firms. Although the other three studies differ from the present one so far as methodology and objectives are concerned, it is, nevertheless, interesting and useful to compare their results with those presented in this paper. Another distinguishing feature of the present study which I should stress is that