机构、贸易及增长外文翻译.docVIP

外文翻译 原文 Institutions, Trade, and Growth Material Source: The World Bank, July 2002 Author: David Dollar, Aart Kraay Abstract: Countries with better institutions and countries that trade more grow faster. Countries with better institutions also tend to trade more. These three stylized facts have been documented extensively. Here we investigate the partial effects of institutions and trade on growth. We argue that cross-country regressions of the log-level of per capita GDP on instrumented measures of trade and institutional quality are uninformative about the relative importance of trade and institutions in the long run, because of the very high correlation between the latter two variables. In contrast, regressions of changes in decadal growth rates on instrumented changes in trade and changes in institutional quality provide evidence of a strong effect of trade on growth, with a much smaller role for improvements in institutions. These results are suggestive of an important joint role for both trade and institutions in the very longing, but relatively larger role for trade over shorter horizons. 1. Introduction Throughout the past two centuries countries that were relatively rich in 1800 have generally grown faster than those that were relatively poor. This growth pattern has resulted in ?divergence, big time”: that is, a steady increase in the ratio of per capita GDP in rich countries compared to that of poor countries (Pritchett 1997). However, this pattern of growth has begun to change around 1980, after which several of the fastest growing countries in the world have also been poor countries. Figure 1 divides countries into income quintiles based on 1980 per capita GDP, and plots subsequent population-weighted growth rates. Growth in the poorest quintile averaged 4 percent per capita, while growth in the richest quintile (mostly OECD countries) was less than 2 percent. Weighting growth rates by country size is clearly important here, because this