人民币升值对宁波农产品出口的影响研究毕业论文.docVIP

毕业论文 （20_ _届） 人民币升值对宁波农产品出口的影响研究 摘 要 农产品是我国传统的出口产业，也是大量贸易顺差和外汇储备的来源，在国民经济发展的过程中发挥着极其重要的作用。浙江农产品出口额在中国农产品出口总额中处于第四的位置，宁波又是浙江农产品出口的第一大市。然宁波农产品出口以初级产品为主，占了75%，产品附加值较低，其优势在于其低廉的价格。根据传统的汇率对贸易影响的理论，人民币汇率升值，必然会对宁波农产品贸易产生重要的影响。 本文在相关理论的基础上，分析了人民币升值对宁波农产品出口的影响。首先，从农产品出口规模、结构、市场及价格等方面进行分析，得出宁波农产品出口对人民币升值不太敏感的结论。其次，通过回归分析进一步解释了人民币升值与农产品出口贸易的关系。论文最后，结合我国现有的经济、政治环境对宁波现存一般农产品出口的问题，提出了政策性的建议，供未来农产品的出口贸易发展做参考。 关键词：Abstract The agriculture plays an important role in Chinas national economy. It is a traditional export industry and also the important resource of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Zhejiang occupies fourth in the total exports of Chinese agricultural products, while Ningbo is the biggest agricultural exports city in Zhejiang. Nevertheless, the exported agricultural products in our city are mainly the primary products, accounting to 75%, and the products added value is low whose advantages lie in their low price. According to the theory between the exchange rate and trade, the export will suffer a lot from the appreciation. Based on the related theories, this article will analyze the influence of Ningbo agriculture export. Firstly, it is concluded that RMB appreciation has little effect upon agriculture export according to agricultural exports scale, structure, market and price, etc. Secondly, the paper gives us a further explanation based on the regression analysis. Finally, it gives some political recommendations to guide future development of export of agricultural products through analyzing the existing general agricultural exports problems in our current economic and political environment. Keywords: appreciation of RMB; export of agriculture; influence; strategy 目 录 1 人民币汇率变化 1 1.1 人民币汇率变化的因素 1 1.1.1 汇率波动的因素 1 1.1.2 人民币汇率波动的国际、国内因素分析 1 1.2 人民币升值对出口贸易影响的机理分析 2 2 宁波农产品出口现状及问题 4 2.1 宁波农产品出口现状 4 2.1.1 农产品出口规模 4 2.1.2 农产品出口结构 5 2.1.3 农产品出口市场 5 2.2 宁波农产品出口面临的主要问题 6 2.2.1 农产品出口缺乏竞争能力 6 2.2.2 农产品出口企业规模普遍较小 6 2.2.3 国际农产品贸易环境恶化 6 2.2.4 农产品出口成本大幅增加，利润空间压缩 7 3 人民