气候变暖背景下杭州市近60年气温变化特征分析.docVIP

  气候变暖背景下杭州市近 60 年气温变化特 征分析# 李少魁1,2，孙卫国1，徐芸皎1，姚龙2，江瑶1** 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，南京 210044； 2. 94783 部队气象台，长兴 313111） 摘要：根据 1951～2010 年的逐日气温资料和城市发展数据，分析了近 60 年杭州市气温变化 特征及其与城市化发展的关系。结果表明：近 60 年杭州市平均气温呈上升趋势，气候倾向 率达 0.313/ 10a；年平均气温存在 16a 尺度的年代际变化周期和 6a、4a、准 2a 尺度的年际 变化周期，气温冷暖突变发生在 80 年代末至 90 年代初；平均最低气温的气候倾向率大于平 均最高气温，前者冬季上升趋势最为明显而后者为春季；极端低温上升比极端高温更加明显， 低温日数以 4.1d/10a 的变率减少，酷暑和暖冬出现频率越来越高而冷冬逐渐减少。分析认为， 除受自然因素影响以外，杭州市气温变化与城市非农业人口增加、建成区面积扩大等人为因 素有关。 关键词：气温变化；气候倾向率；城市化；相关分析 中图分类号：P467 Analysis of Temperature Variations During The Past 60 Years Under Global Warming in Hangzhou City Li Shaokui1,2, Sun Weiguo1, Xu Yunjiao1, Yao Long2, Jiang Yao1 (1. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science Technology, Nanjing 210044; 2. Meteorological Station of 94783 Army, Changxing 313111) Abstract: According to the daily air temperature data from 1951 to 2010 and urban development data of Hangzhou city, temperature variations in resent 60 years and the relationship with the urbanization are analyzed. The results show that: the mean temperature of the Hangzhou city presented the upward trend during the past 60 years and climate trend rate up to 0.313 ℃/10a. Annual mean temperature vary with decadal period of 16a scale and inter-annual periods of 6a, 4a, quasi-2a scale. The temperatures mutation from cold to warm occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s. Climate trend rate of mean minimum temperature is greater than that of mean maximum temperature, the former is most obviously in winter but the latter in spring. Extreme low temperature rise more obviously than the extreme high temperature, the cold days have a reduced rate at 4.1d/10a. Frequences of hot summer and warm winter were increasing and cold winter was decresing. Analysis makes it knowen that, in addition to natural factors, the temperature variations related to urban non-agricultural population increasing, built-up areas expanding and other human factors in Hangzhou city. Key