齐海峰竞技成绩的灰色联系分析及gm (1, n) 动态协调模型的研究.pdfVIP

2004年 03月 首 都 体 育 学 院 学 报 Mar 2004 第 16卷 第 1期 Journal of CapitalInstitute 6 No.1 齐海峰竞技成绩的灰色关联分析及GM(1,N) 动态协调模型的研究 孙俊生 (天水师范学院 体育学院，甘肃天水 741001 ) 摘 要：采用文献资料法和灰色关联度分析法，对我国优秀男子十项全能运动员齐海峰1999-2002 年十项全能的比赛成绩进行统计与分析，运用ＧＭ(1, Ｎ) 动态协调模型对其在总成绩不断提高的各 个阶段诸因素间相互联系、相互影响的辩证发展关系进行多方位、多层次研究。结果表明：100米 跑、铅球和跳远是影响齐海峰专项成绩的关键因素，其关联度分别为0.8928 、0.7443和0.7571 ，研 究还发现，齐海峰在成绩提高的每一个阶段中，系统处于不稳定和非协调发展，其中速度和速度 ——力量性项目落后是导致系统不稳定和非协调发展的主要因素。 关键词：十项全能；GM(1,N)动态协调模型；灰色系统理论；专项成绩 中图分类号：G804.82 文章编号：1009-783X(2004)01-0120-03 文献标识码：A Research on the Grey Interrelated Analysis and GM(1,N) Dynamic Coordinate Model of QI Hai-feng ’s Successful Competing Records SUN Jun-sheng (P.E. Department of Tianshui Normal University, Tianshui Gansu 741001, China) Abstract : By using reference and gray interrelated analysis, the writer made statistics and analysis on China ’s excellent male decathlon athlete QI Hai-feng ’s successful competing records during the period from 1999 to 2002. Besides, the writer also use GM (1,N) dynamic coordinate model to analyze and research in an overall and multi-level way on the interrelated dialectical developing relationship of various factors in each period during which Qi ’s competing records constantly rise. The research result shows that 100mere race, shot putting and long jumping are key factors which influence Qi ’s competing records, of which the interrelating degrees are 0.8928, 0.7443, and 0.7571 respectively. Another discovery of the research is that in each period during which his records rise, the whole system is an unsteady and non-coordinate development, of which un-advanced spee