出口结构和增长外文文献综述.docVIP

本科毕业论文外文翻译 夕卜文题目： Export Structure and growth A Detailed Analysis for Argentina 出 处：World Bank Policy Research working paper 4237，Mav 2007 作 者： Guerson, Alejandro, Park . James , Torrado , Monica Parra 原文： Export Structure and Growth A Detailed Analysis for Argentina* Introduction and Summary of Conclusions In rcccnt years, the performance of Argentine exports has been particularly strong. Argentina has benefited from positive terms of trade shocks in some sectors but higher export volumes have been the most important source of export growth. In 2005, merchandise exports rcachcd about US$40 billion, which is more than 50 pcrccnt above the peak prior to 2002. This trend continued in 2006: as of September exports of goods had grown by 12.3 pcrccnt. The improvement in export performance was accompanicd by a drastic changc in relative prices following upon the currency devaluation in 2002 which has significantly improved the competitiveness of Argentine exports overall. Aggregate export statistics show that the momentum of export performance has been sustained by manufactured goods which led exports growth in 2006 . Looking beyond aggregate trends，this paper examines changes in the structure of Argentine exports, and their potential impact on future growth. To that end, we apply the conceptual framework developed in Hausmann and Rodrik (2003) and Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2006) (HHR). They define the“productivity frontier”of a country as the optimal composite of exports that would maximize prospective future growth. Countries that fall short of the productivity frontier have two basic channels through which they can grow. First, countries can grow by producing more of the same goods they have already been producing. Second, and more interestingly, countries can improve their growth prospects by developing new products that shift them closer to their productivity frontier. The analysis of HHR reveals that, if new products have a high productivity (i.e. they tend to b