西露天矿开采对抚顺发电有限责任公司厂区地表变形机理及预测的研究.pdfVIP

致 谢 放置在摘要页前，对象包括： 国家科学基金，资助研究工作的奖学金基金，合同单位，资助或支持的企业、组织或 个人。 协助完成研究工作和提供便利条件的组织或个人。 在研究工作中提出建议和提供帮助的人。 给与转载和引用权的资料、图片、文献、研究思想和设想的所有者。 其他应感谢的组织和个人。 摘 要 本文从西露天矿开采对抚顺发电有限责任公司厂区产生影响的实际情况出发， 总结了厂区地表移动变形规律，并且针对西露天矿开挖及厂区所处的特殊地质采矿 条件，通过 ADINA 数值模拟分析了露天开挖引起岩体移动、变形和破坏的 F1A 断 层效应的过程和机理，能够很好的解释厂区内 F1A 断裂因开采造成的拉开和陡坎所 导致的坐落在其上及附近的工业建筑物、构筑物以及民房发生严重的破坏和倾斜现 象。由于 F1 断层的存在，又起到了加剧 F1A 断层效应的作用。最后基于厂区内实 测地表下沉值时间序列深入研究，引入混沌理论，通过三种方法判别均表明下沉值 时间序列存在着混沌特征，由此建立了 Volterra 自适应多步预测模型，以 C4 点为 例对下沉值时间序列进行混沌多步预测，经测试预测性能较好，预测结果令人满意。 关键词：露天开采；沉陷区；断层效应；混沌时间序列；预测 - I - Abstract This article from the actual conditions that the west open-pit mining effect on the surface of Fushun Power Generation Co. Ltd., summarizes the factory surface movement deformation regularity, and aiming at west open-pit mine excavation and factory in place of the special geological environmental conditions, through ADINA numerical simulation analyses surface deformation from 2005 to 2012 and process and mechanism of F1A fault effect caused by the excavation Judge the factory ground deformation trend for the anticipation, and can be good enough to explain the factory strictly F1A rupture due to mining steep open and camp caused as a result of located in its and the nearby industrial buildings, structures and crippling serious destruction and tilt phenomenon. Due to the presence of faults Fl, and played the aggravate F1A fault effect of the function. Finally, based on the factory measured surface subsidence value time series thorough research, introducing chaos theory, through three methods discriminant indicate that the subsidence value time sequence exists chaotic character, creating the Volterra adaptive multi-step forecast model, with C4 point as an example to sink value cha