京津冀地区控制PM2.5污染的健康效益评估.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2013,33(1) ：166~174 China Environmental Science 京津冀地区控制 PM2.5 污染的健康效益评估 黄德生,张世秋* (北京大学环境科学与工程学院,环境与经济研究所,北京 100871) 摘要：基于流行病学综合研究成果,运用环境健康风险评估技术和环境价值评估方法,对京津冀地区实施并达到 2012 年新颁布的《空气质 量标准》中细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度标准可实现的健康效益进行了评估,并对区域内各城市的健康效益进行了比较分析.结果表明,京津冀地区 能够实现的健康效益总和可达到 612~2560 亿元/a(均值为 1729 亿元/a),相当于该地区 2009 年地方生产总值的 1.66%~6.94%(均值为 4.68%). 其中河北省所能实现的总健康效益最大,北京、天津和石家庄这些大城市能够实现的健康改善和经济效益最为显著.本文的研究结果可望 为实施 PM2.5 空气质量标准的成本效益分析提供科学依据,并为大气污染区域联防联控和环境质量管理与合作提供重要的政策决策参考. 关键词：京津冀地区；PM2.5 ；空气质量标准；健康效益；价值评估 中图分类号：X32 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2013)01-0166-09 Health benefit evaluation for PM2.5 pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. HUANG De-sheng, * ZHANG Shi-qiu (Institute of Environment and Economy, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China). China Environmental Science, 2013,33(1)：166~174 Abstract ：Based on the Meta analysis results of the epidemiological studies, we evaluated the health benefit of achieving PM2.5 air quality standard in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and made comparative analysis among cities in the region, combining the environmental health risk assessment and environmental valuation. The results show that the total health benefit is approximately 61.2~256 billion RMB per year (the mean value is 172.9 billion RMB per year), accounting for 1.66%~6.94% (4.68% in mean value) of the GDP of this region in 2009. Therein Hebei province gains the greatest benefit, further, the big cities like Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang can achieve the most significant health improvement and economic benefit. The results provide scientific benchmark for cost benefit analysis of implementing PM2.5 air quality standard, as well as important information for decision making on regional joint prevention and control of air pollution and on