我国房地产信托风险管理实证分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 1998 年以来，中国房地产市场发展迅速，但不断收紧的货币政策和趋于严格 的信贷管理，迫使房地产企业寻求新的融资渠道，而不断增长的居民财富也急切 寻求新的投资方式。房地产信托投资恰好可以同时解决这两个问题，所以房地产 信托自2008 年以来，得到迅速发展。截至2013 年底，中国信托业资产规模已达 10.91 万亿元，成为中国继银行业后的第二大金融支柱。然而风险与收益是成正 比的，高收益的房地产信托也存在着不可避免的高风险。房地产信托的发展一方 面影响着房地产行业的稳步发展，另一方面以其管理的巨大资金影响信托业，乃 至金融行业的稳定发展，并对相关行业（如银行业）具有联动作用。如何预防、 减少和控制房地产信托风险，成为投资者和信托公司面临的新课题。 本文将房地产信托项目的风险识别为系统性风险和非系统性风险，并采用专 家打分法、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对风险进行测量，并从政府、信托公司 和投资者的角度探讨如何应对风险，最后结合特定的信托计划，对其风险进行识 别、测量和应对，在测量其风险等级为高后，探讨信托公司和投资者应采取的风 险管理措施。 关键词：房地产信托，风险识别，风险管理 I Abstract Since 1998, the real estate market has developed rapidly. However, the tighter monetary policy and stronger management and control of the real estate credit from the government force the real estate companies to find new financing channels. On the other side, the growing residential wealth is also urgently looking for new investments. The real estate trusts can solve these two problems at the same time. So the real estate trusts have got rapid development since 2008. The size of trust assets under management reached 10.91 billion in 2013 and the trust industry became the second largest financial industry pillar in China. But the high yield with the high risk, the risk of real estate trusts is also inevitable. Development of the real estate trusts affects the steady development of the real estate industry, the the stability of the financial industry and the related industries, such as banking industry. How to prevent and control the risk of real estate trusts, becomes a new task faced by the investors and the trust companies. The paper recognizes the risk of real estate trusts through systematic and unsystematic risk factors, measures the risk with the method of the Experts Ma