基于动态规划下最优停时方法多目标公司兼并次序及时机选择_扈文秀.pdfVIP

2 1 1 系 统 管 理 学 报 V ol. 2 1 N o . 1 20 12 1 Jo ur nal of Sy stem s M anag em ent Jan. 20 12 : 1005- 2542 ( 2012) 01- 0034- 0 8 扈文秀 张 涛 穆庆榜 ( 710054) = 基于动态规划思想 使用最优停时方法研 了不确定的市场条件下 企业依次兼并两家目标公 司的兼并次序和兼并时机问题通过假设实现协同效应所需时间服从负指数分布来表征兼并后的整合风 险 基于此建立了序贯兼并的最优停时模型 分析了沉没成本分阶段支付对序贯兼并决策的影响 并确定了 扩张型序贯兼并的次序选择原则研 发现 最佳兼并时机随着整合风险的增加而推迟; 对于扩张型序贯兼 并而言 兼并次序选择取决于沉没成本谈判能力企业规模兼并协同度和整合风险等因素的权衡; 分期逐 额支付沉没成本能够提高企业的兼并积极性 加速兼并的实施 : 序贯兼并; 兼并次序; 兼并时机; 最优停时 : F 830 : A Sequencing and Timing of Multi-Targets Mergers based on Optimal Stopping by Dynamic Programming H U Wen-x iu, ZH A N G Tao, M U Qing-bang ( Scho ol o f Bu sines s A dm inist rat ion X ian U niv ersity o f T echnolog y Xi. an 710054 China) =Abstract We st u dy t he sequencing and t iming of dua-l t arg et s merges based on optimal st opping by dy- nam ic prog ramming. A ssuming t he t ime needed t o realiz e t he sy nerg ies is ex ponent ially dist ribut ed t o re- pr esent t he co nsolidat ion risk w e build an optim al st opp ing model of sequent ial mergers and analyz e t he eff ect o f sunk cost s on sequential merg e decision. T he results show t h at t he o pt imal t im ing of sequent ial merg es is delayed w hen t he co nsolidat ion h as hig h risks mor eo ver in resp ect o f t he exp anded sequent ial merg es the sequence of m er ges is det erm ined by t he t radeof f among such fact or s as t he cost b argaining pow er scale synergic degr ee and con solidat ion risk . It is also show n sunk cost s paid may boost t he bid- ding ent hu siasm and accelerat e the m er gers. Key words: sequ ent ial m erg ers; order of m er gers; t iming o f mergers; o pt imal st